Simple to cogitate

What does it mean for the IEA to declare all earlier prognoses of the IEA as waste paper and to give all the criticans of this organisation right? How much courage is necessary for this step?






  Overwhelming evidence
Since decades, the IEA is regulary criticized for the WEO. April 2008 the chief econom of the IEA gives an interview.

  We are wrong, our criticans have been right
Would You do this thoughtlessly? Would You do this, when there would be a small hope, the earlier prognoses of Your organization could be right? Would You have the courage to declare in an interview, that all what Your organization was before has been an failure?

  Imagine the situation of Fatih Briol

  • Study all earlier prognoses of the IEA
  • Study all critics about earlier prognoses of the IEA
  • Study the Interview
Peak Oil
The production of crude oil diminishes. Even the IEA tells this, which was always criticized for prognoses with much more oil production, in a dramatic turn around.
Fatik Birol Chief Economist of IEA
The IEA is the supreme authority for energy prognoses in the OECD countries, but supreme uncovering uncomfortable truth, somebody becomes fast a caller in the desert.
Proverbs in modern interpreation
Not historical, but modern amusingly in connection with own experiences, the origin of many famouse proverbs is new interpreted.


  IEA WEO crude oil price and production
Comments to an interview in international politic April 20008 The sirens scream, Talk from Astrid Schneider and Fatih Birol.

IEA: Forward, we have to go back
Dramatic change in the prognosis: WEO 2006 more and more oil production, Energy Watch Group 2007: decrease of oil production. Will the WEO 2008 be worse than EWG 2007?
IEA oil prognosis
The IEA wants to change from a demand oriented prognosis to a prognosis based on the production possibilities of crude oil and natural gas.
Wrong investion oil production
Briol from the IEA wishes that US$ 5.400.000.000.000 should be invested in the oil production. At the progress to replace oil by wind and solar, this would be a wrong investion.
The responsibility of the IEA
Most politicians have trusted the prognosises of the IEA very much. For this trust, they are now reprehended by the IEA, because they did not enough for energy efficiency.


Context description:  IEA WEO 2006 2007 2007 crude oil prognosis forcast outlook event events date time month 4 Apr April spring