The responsibility of the IEA

Most politicians have trusted the prognosises of the IEA very much. For this trust, they are now reprehended by the IEA, because they did not enough for energy efficiency.



  The interview in "international politic" translated by me


Birol: To create an escape, there are only 3 ways. First we have to increase the energy efficiency of cars. trucks, airplanes dramatic to slow down the increase of oil demand. Second we have to use more alternative fuel. But seeing what governments do in this area to increase efficiency, I have few hope that it comes to a change in the politic. And at last, we need new oil projects, special in the key countries of OPEC.

  Our comment


Let's assume there is a montain guide guiding some tourists in the death. The mountain guide says always we have good weather, the weather will remain good, it's all in best condition, no problem to reach the top of the mountina. But suddenly, there is a heavy tempest. The completely unprepared tourists die.

After the tragic accident, the mountain guide gives an interview: This stupid tourists had been completely unprepared for the sudden change of weather typical for this mountain region.

  Replace words


Now replace mountain guide with IEA, the weather forcast with WEO 2006 and earlier, and the stupid tourists with the average politician trusting in the prognosises of IEA.

Peak Oil
The production of crude oil diminishes. Even the IEA tells this, which was always criticized for prognoses with much more oil production, in a dramatic turn around.


Fatik Birol Chief Economist of IEA
The IEA is the supreme authority for energy prognoses in the OECD countries, but supreme uncovering uncomfortable truth, somebody becomes fast a caller in the desert.




  IEA WEO crude oil price and production


Comments to an interview in international politic April 20008 The sirens scream, Talk from Astrid Schneider and Fatih Birol.

IEA: Forward, we have to go back
Dramatic change in the prognosis: WEO 2006 more and more oil production, Energy Watch Group 2007: decrease of oil production. Will the WEO 2008 be worse than EWG 2007?


IEA oil prognosis
The IEA wants to change from a demand oriented prognosis to a prognosis based on the production possibilities of crude oil and natural gas.


Wrong investion oil production
Briol from the IEA wishes that US$ 5.400.000.000.000 should be invested in the oil production. At the progress to replace oil by wind and solar, this would be a wrong investion.


Simple to cogitate
What does it mean for the IEA to declare all earlier prognoses of the IEA as waste paper and to give all the criticans of this organisation right? How much courage is necessary for this step?




Context description:  IEA WEO 2006 2007 2007 crude oil prognosis forcast outlook event events date time month 4 Apr April spring