IEA oil prognosis

The IEA wants to change from a demand oriented prognosis to a prognosis based on the production possibilities of crude oil and natural gas.

The interview in "international politic" translated by me

Birol: I can inform You, in our world energy outlook 2008, we will intensively look on the crude oil and natural gas producion. We will look on the 350 most important oil and gas fields. We will resarch, how much the production will decrease and what this means.

Schneider: What do You mean?

Birol: As far as I know, this will be the first public study, where we examine our thoughts how much oil and gas comes on the market. Many people will draw new conclusions from this.

Our comment

This is a confession! When the WEO 2008 will be the first study about the production of oil and gas, then this is obviously not true for all other issues of the WEO.

There is since long time the accusation of the peak oil scientists, that the IEA takes the reports of the oil exporting countries as absolut truth. Now we have the confession for this.

Peak Oil
	The production of crude oil diminishes. Even the IEA tells this, which was always criticized for prognoses with much more oil production, in a dramatic turn around.

Fatik Birol Chief Economist of IEA
	The IEA is the supreme authority for energy prognoses in the OECD countries, but supreme uncovering uncomfortable truth, somebody becomes fast a caller in the desert.

IEA: Forward, we have to go back
	Dramatic change in the prognosis: WEO 2006 more and more oil production, Energy Watch Group 2007: decrease of oil production. Will the WEO 2008 be worse than EWG 2007?

Wrong investion oil production
	Briol from the IEA wishes that US$ 5.400.000.000.000 should be invested in the oil production. At the progress to replace oil by wind and solar, this would be a wrong investion.

The responsibility of the IEA
	Most politicians have trusted the prognosises of the IEA very much. For this trust, they are now reprehended by the IEA, because they did not enough for energy efficiency.

Simple to cogitate
	What does it mean for the IEA to declare all earlier prognoses of the IEA as waste paper and to give all the criticans of this organisation right? How much courage is necessary for this step?