IEA: Forward, we have to go back

Dramatic change in the prognosis: WEO 2006 more and more oil production, Energy Watch Group 2007: decrease of oil production. Will the WEO 2008 be worse than EWG 2007?

The interview in "international politic" translated by me

Schneider: In the WEO 2007 is written that the decrease of oil production will be between 3.7 and 4.2 percent per year. Is this right?

Birol: Exactly

This decrease is more steep, than in the prognosis of the energy watch group.

Our comment

The IEA created until now demand oriented prognoses. The demand for crude oil will be, so this will be produced. The 27 OECD countires and the rest of the world trusted for decades this prognoses, which are now corrected very dramatic.

What would be, if the IEA would have made such a prognosis 15 years ago? 1993 as I did all possible to save the world by inhabited solar power plants from the clima catastrophe?

Maybe there would be only in Germany 1 million inhabited solar power plants producing 30 TWh electric power per year. Ohter roofs 50 TWh. The development for battery technology for mobility and storage of solar electric power would have been pushed as intensive as the Manhattan project.

It's the difference, is the warning before a diasterouse hurricane 3 days or 3 hours before arrival. When a weather station gives only 3 hours before arrival a warning will be blamed for total bungle.

Peak Oil
	The production of crude oil diminishes. Even the IEA tells this, which was always criticized for prognoses with much more oil production, in a dramatic turn around.

Fatik Birol Chief Economist of IEA
	The IEA is the supreme authority for energy prognoses in the OECD countries, but supreme uncovering uncomfortable truth, somebody becomes fast a caller in the desert.

Proverbs in modern interpreation
	Not historical, but modern amusingly in connection with own experiences, the origin of many famouse proverbs is new interpreted.

IEA oil prognosis
	The IEA wants to change from a demand oriented prognosis to a prognosis based on the production possibilities of crude oil and natural gas.

Wrong investion oil production
	Briol from the IEA wishes that US$ 5.400.000.000.000 should be invested in the oil production. At the progress to replace oil by wind and solar, this would be a wrong investion.

The responsibility of the IEA
	Most politicians have trusted the prognosises of the IEA very much. For this trust, they are now reprehended by the IEA, because they did not enough for energy efficiency.

Simple to cogitate
	What does it mean for the IEA to declare all earlier prognoses of the IEA as waste paper and to give all the criticans of this organisation right? How much courage is necessary for this step?