Scenarios of energy development

Description for the 4 different szenarios of photovoltaik world market development. Explanation for the increasing amount of electric power to replace 1 litre of crude oil.

kWh electric power vs litre crude oil

Each scenario starts with opportune applications, where 2,5 kWh electric power replaces 1 litre crude oil. Heating with a heat pump and electric propulsion of cars in city traffic are such opportune applications.

But with more and more solar electricity, also more and more less opportune applications will be developt. The upper maximum are 15 kWh electric power for the hydrogen to replace 1 litre heavy oil in a ship propulsion.

Increase of average effort

3% per year at Scenario 30% and Reason 1992
4% per year at Scenario 50%.
5% per year at scenario war economy.

Storage losses at electric power generation

Against modern oil power plants are about 5 kWh against 1 litre oil necessary, but only when the solar electricity is uses just at the time of production. It this not the case, the effort is increased by the storage losses.

In the most unfavorable case, 12.5 kWh solar electric power are used in the summer to replace 1 litre oil. This is for electrolysis and liquification to produce in winter in a GuD gas power plant with hydrogen electric power.

This is the reason, that the scensios end with up to 7.31 kWh electric power to replace 1 litre crude oil.

Editorial of PEGE
	Important questions about the future, reports and possible solutions. PEGE as an independent analyst of facts and designer of long term strategies outside of short sighted populisms.

Replace crude oil by electric power
	The amount of electric power to replace an unit of fossile energy can, depending on application, be complete different.

Replace crude oil by photovoltaic
	From all methods to produce energy is only with photovoltaic the magnitude reachable necessary to solve the problems of humanity.

Photovoltaic 30% yearly increase
	Against the prognosis of the Energy Watch Group, reduction of the crude oil production to 39 million barrels a day in 2030, is a 30% increase of the photovoltaic world market not enough.

Photovoltaic world production 50% yearly plus
	This szenario shows until 2020 a 50% yearly increase of production and later of 20% per year. To avoid an oil crisis would be a more fast increase better.

War economy: extreme increase of photovoltaic world production
	From 2010 to 2014 radical increase of the photovoltaic world production with 200% per year until 1000 GW yearly production is reached, further extension with 10% per year.

Rationality 1992
	What would be, if starting with 1992, the year I invented the GEMINI house, the photovoltaic world production would have been increased by 60% per year?

Difference 2018
	The prognosis for the crude oil production in 2018 is 63 million barrel per day. How much we pay for this, how hard we are hit by a recession, decides the politic today.

Biomass in the change of time
	Biomass is in the present seen as a supplier for energy, but this will change in the future to a supplier of raw material requiring energy for processing.

Biomass wood
	The wood ofen will become a luxury, instead of 4,3 kWh heat by burning, we will invest 10 kWh electric power to produce 1,65 methanol from 1 kg wood.

Dessert and dry areas
	A sea water desalination system supplied by solar electric power near the shore needs for the photovoltaic only 0.8% of the surface to irrigate with 500mm water a year.

Storage of electric power
	The biggest problem of photovoltaic is to bring offer and demand together. Study about possible solutions.

CO2 Carbon dioxide reduction
	It is not enough to reduce the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is necessary to reduce the CO2 contained in the atmosphere to the amount in 1900.

5 kWh Lithium batteries per kW photovoltaic
	At an fast increase of photovoltaic, it will be soon necessary to store electric power and to feed the power equable in the power grid.