Difference 2018

The prognosis for the crude oil production in 2018 is 63 million barrel per day. How much we pay for this, how hard we are hit by a recession, decides the politic today.



  Crass difference in prognoses


The graphic of the energy watch group shows for 2018 only 63 million barrel a day. The WEO prognosis from 2006 on the other hand 103 million barrel a day. At a normal economic develeopment would be 103 million barrel in 2018 the normal increase of demand. 63 million barrel means without drastic handling world wide recession an oil price at $300 the barrel.

  OPEC can not hold the production


The oil price increase February 19th 2008 over $100, because OPEC talked about decreasing production. So it's now clear what prognois is the truth.

  2 or 6 or 51 million barrel a day


The 3 introduced scenarios have until 2018 the potential for daily

Politics has to decide today, have we to pay 2018 for 63 million barrels with $300 each, this makes $7118 billions, or because the radical increase of photovoltaic delviers enough energy, so only $100 per barrel, making $2373 billions.

A privat financed increase of the production capacity is in this dimension not possible. So politic has to take as decided actions as the USA after Pearl Harbor.
Editorial of PEGE
Important questions about the future, reports and possible solutions. PEGE as an independent analyst of facts and designer of long term strategies outside of short sighted populisms.


Photovoltaik world market
The development of the photovoltaic world market is a race with the world wide problems peak oil and climate change.




  Energy for the future


Who has energy can solve problems. Examples over methods and magnitudes for the future energy supply of mankind.

Replace crude oil by electric power
The amount of electric power to replace an unit of fossile energy can, depending on application, be complete different.


Replace crude oil by photovoltaic
From all methods to produce energy is only with photovoltaic the magnitude reachable necessary to solve the problems of humanity.


Scenarios of energy development
Description for the 4 different szenarios of photovoltaik world market development. Explanation for the increasing amount of electric power to replace 1 litre of crude oil.


Photovoltaic 30% yearly increase
Against the prognosis of the Energy Watch Group, reduction of the crude oil production to 39 million barrels a day in 2030, is a 30% increase of the photovoltaic world market not enough.


Photovoltaic world production 50% yearly plus
This szenario shows until 2020 a 50% yearly increase of production and later of 20% per year. To avoid an oil crisis would be a more fast increase better.


War economy: extreme increase of photovoltaic world production
From 2010 to 2014 radical increase of the photovoltaic world production with 200% per year until 1000 GW yearly production is reached, further extension with 10% per year.


Rationality 1992
What would be, if starting with 1992, the year I invented the GEMINI house, the photovoltaic world production would have been increased by 60% per year?


Biomass in the change of time
Biomass is in the present seen as a supplier for energy, but this will change in the future to a supplier of raw material requiring energy for processing.


Biomass wood
The wood ofen will become a luxury, instead of 4,3 kWh heat by burning, we will invest 10 kWh electric power to produce 1,65 methanol from 1 kg wood.


Dessert and dry areas
A sea water desalination system supplied by solar electric power near the shore needs for the photovoltaic only 0.8% of the surface to irrigate with 500mm water a year.


Storage of electric power
The biggest problem of photovoltaic is to bring offer and demand together. Study about possible solutions.


CO2 Carbon dioxide reduction
It is not enough to reduce the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is necessary to reduce the CO2 contained in the atmosphere to the amount in 1900.


5 kWh Lithium batteries per kW photovoltaic
At an fast increase of photovoltaic, it will be soon necessary to store electric power and to feed the power equable in the power grid.




Context description:  future energy electric power supply use electricity usage event events date time month 2 Feb February winter