Scenarios of energy development

Description for the 4 different szenarios of photovoltaik world market development. Explanation for the increasing amount of electric power to replace 1 litre of crude oil.

kWh electric power vs litre crude oil

Each scenario starts with opportune applications, where 2,5 kWh electric power replaces 1 litre crude oil. Heating with a heat pump and electric propulsion of cars in city traffic are such opportune applications.

But with more and more solar electricity, also more and more less opportune applications will be developt. The upper maximum are 15 kWh electric power for the hydrogen to replace 1 litre heavy oil in a ship propulsion.

Increase of average effort

• 3% per year at Scenario 30% and Reason 1992
• 4% per year at Scenario 50%.
• 5% per year at scenario war economy.

Storage losses at electric power generation

Against modern oil power plants are about 5 kWh against 1 litre oil necessary, but only when the solar electricity is uses just at the time of production. It this not the case, the effort is increased by the storage losses.

In the most unfavorable case, 12.5 kWh solar electric power are used in the summer to replace 1 litre oil. This is for electrolysis and liquification to produce in winter in a GuD gas power plant with hydrogen electric power.

This is the reason, that the scensios end with up to 7.31 kWh electric power to replace 1 litre crude oil.