Difference 2018

The prognosis for the crude oil production in 2018 is 63 million barrel per day. How much we pay for this, how hard we are hit by a recession, decides the politic today.

Crass difference in prognoses

The graphic of the energy watch group shows for 2018 only 63 million barrel a day. The WEO prognosis from 2006 on the other hand 103 million barrel a day. At a normal economic develeopment would be 103 million barrel in 2018 the normal increase of demand. 63 million barrel means without drastic handling world wide recession an oil price at $300 the barrel.

OPEC can not hold the production

The oil price increase February 19th 2008 over $100, because OPEC talked about decreasing production. So it's now clear what prognois is the truth.

2 or 6 or 51 million barrel a day

The 3 introduced scenarios have until 2018 the potential for daily

2 millionen barrel/day at 30% market increase
6 millionen barrel/day at 50% market increase
51 millionen barrel/day at war economy

Politics has to decide today, have we to pay 2018 for 63 million barrels with $300 each, this makes $7118 billions, or because the radical increase of photovoltaic delviers enough energy, so only $100 per barrel, making $2373 billions.

A privat financed increase of the production capacity is in this dimension not possible. So politic has to take as decided actions as the USA after Pearl Harbor.